🔎 0. ASSET IDENTIFICATION - **Name / Ticker:** Pyth Network / PYTH. Birdeye lists the mint HZ1J…BCt3 as verified "Pyth Network". - **Chain / Standard:** Solana. PYTH was issued natively as an SPL token on Solana. Decimals: Not verified (no retrieved source states them). - **Bridged / wrapped:** The queried mint is the native Solana token. Copies on other chains appear to exist (The Block lists an EVM contract 0x90e…eb6917; DefiLlama shows a PYTH-CETUS pool on Sui). They were not verified and are excluded. - **Proxy status:** Not applicable in the EVM sense, since an SPL mint is an account under the Token program. The status of the mint authority is Not verified (section 3). - **Data Confidence:** LOW 📊 1. TOKENOMICS METRICS OVERVIEW Market inputs (Coinbase, 14 Oct 2026): price $0.08089, market cap $637.82M, circulating 7,874,959,061, total 9,999,981,857, 24h volume $60.2M. The max supply is 10B per Pyth's tokenomics post. | Metric | Extracted Data | Status | Source | Data Date | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Circulating vs Max Supply | 7,874,959,061 / 10,000,000,000 = 78.75% (calculated) | 🟢 | Coinbase; Pyth tokenomics post | 14 Oct 2026 | | Market Cap vs FDV | $637.82M / $809.9M = 78.75% (calculated; FDV = $637.82M × 10B / 7.875B) | 🟢 | Coinbase | 14 Oct 2026 | | Top 10 Holder Concentration | Not verified. CMC lists 305.22K holders, but no usable top-10 data was retrieved. | ⚪ Not verified | CoinMarketCap | stale (158d) | | Insider Allocation | Private Sales 1.0B + Protocol Development 1.0B = 2.0B / 10B = 20.0% (calculated; definition in section 6) | 🟡 | Messari/Tokenomist allocation tables | Genesis (Nov 2023), static | | 12-Month Unlock vs Circulating | 2,125,000,000 / 7,874,959,061 = 26.98% (calculated). No other scheduled releases in the window. | 🟡 | Tokenomist; DropsTab; CMC AI | DropsTab ≈3 Oct 2026 (derived from "228 days left") | | Next Unlock vs 24h Volume | 2,125,000,000 × $0.08089 = $171.9M; / $60.22M = 285.5% (calculated) | 🔴 | Tokenomist; Coinbase | 14 Oct 2026 | ⚠️ 2. UNLOCK SCHEDULE & INFLATION - **Next Unlock Event:** **19 May 2027**, the final cliff of the schedule. - Tokens: 2,125,000,000 PYTH (Tokenomist; DropsTab shows 2.13B.) - % of total: 21.25% (calculated). - % of circulating: 26.98% (calculated). - USD value: ≈$171.9M (calculated at $0.08089). DropsTab shows ≈$168.5M at its own price. - Known components: 250.00M Private Sales and 537.53M Publisher Rewards. The remaining ≈1.337B (calculated) is split across Ecosystem Growth and Protocol Development, and that split is Not verified. - **Upcoming 3 unlocks:** | Date | Tokens | % Circulating | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | 19 May 2027 | 2,125,000,000 | 26.98% (calculated) | | None scheduled | n/a | n/a | | None scheduled | n/a | n/a | - **Vesting Structure:** | Category | % Allocation | Cliff | Vesting terms | Status | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Ecosystem Growth | 52% (5.2B) | 6, 18, 30, 42 months after launch | Cliff releases | ≈1.13B still locked (Messari remaining figure) | | Publisher Rewards | 22% (2.2B) | Same | Same | 537.53M locked | | Protocol Development | 10% (1.0B) | Same | Same | ≈212.5M locked (from the earlier Messari snapshot, Not verified for May 2027) | | Private Sales | 10% (1.0B) | Same | Same | 250.00M locked | | Community & Launch | 6% (600M) | None | 100% unlocked at launch (20 Nov 2023) | Fully unlocked | - **Inflation Metric:** - Monthly emission: 0 tokens, 0% (the supply is fixed at 10B and there is no block-reward emission). - Remaining locked supply: 2.125B / 10B = 21.25% of max (calculated). - Months to full unlock: 7.1 months (216 days from 15 Oct 2026 to 19 May 2027, calculated). The schedule is not linear, because it is a single cliff. - Past release: 2.13B PYTH was released on 19 May 2026 from a circulating base of about 5.75B. - **Supply Offsets:** - The PYTH Reserve has existed since Dec 2025. - Monthly purchases were about 2.75M PYTH in March, 1.80M in June, 1.14M in July and 669,662 in August 2026. - The DAO's "100% Rule" was approved in October 2026. It sends all eligible product receipts to monthly purchases, capped at $25,000 per transaction with 5% max slippage. First purchases were on 30 Sep. The reserve does not burn tokens. - The reserve holds about 41M tokens, or 42M after the 30 Sep purchases. That is 0.53% of circulating (calculated, 42M / 7.875B). - No burn history was found. 🛡️ 3. CONTRACT & CONTROL - **Proxy / upgradeable:** Not applicable to an SPL mint. Upgradeability of any associated programs is Not verified. - **Mint or privileged roles:** Mint authority and freeze authority are Not verified. Solscan and the other explorer pages retrieved did not show token-level data. - **Supply observation:** Coinbase's total of 9,999,981,857 is 18,143 below the documented 10,000,000,000 (calculated). The cause is Not verified. - **Admin type:** Not verified for the mint. The Pyth Data Association (a Swiss association) supports network development. DAO votes govern the reserve policy. - **Source verified:** Not applicable (an SPL mint has no deployed token source). Birdeye lists the mint as verified. 🎯 4. DATA INDICATORS - **Key Inflation Factors:** - 🔴 Next unlock is $171.9M, or 285.5% of 24h volume (calculated). Even the highest volume figure found ($69.39M, Kraken) gives 247.7% (calculated). - 🟡 The final cliff is 26.98% of current circulating (section 1). - 🟡 Insider allocation is 20.0% (Private Sales + Protocol Development), at the lower edge of the 20-35% band. - **Key Stability Factors:** - 🟢 Circulating/Max is 78.75% and Market Cap/FDV is 78.75%. - 🟢 Supply is fixed at 10B with 0 monthly emission, and 21.25% remains locked, all in one release. - 🟢 Reserve buybacks are held rather than burned, at about 42M PYTH (0.53% of circulating, calculated). 🛑 5. ANALYTICAL SUMMARY - **Summary Rating:** MODERATE DILUTION. Trigger: the 12-month unlock indicator is 🟡 (26.98%). The 🔴 count is 1 (Next Unlock vs Volume), so the HIGH threshold is not met. Top 10 Holders is Not verified and excluded from the count. - **Data Confidence:** LOW. Supply and the unlock schedule are corroborated by multiple sources, but top-10 holder concentration and mint/freeze authority are unverified. - **Final Data Conclusion:** 78.75% of the fixed 10B supply is circulating (calculated, 14 Oct 2026), and the remaining 2.125B PYTH (21.25%) is scheduled as one cliff on 19 May 2027, equal to 26.98% of current circulating (calculated). The DAO reserve holds about 42M PYTH (0.53% of circulating, calculated), while top-10 concentration and mint/freeze authority remain unverified. 📝 6. DATA LIMITATIONS & SOURCE CONFLICTS - **Not verified:** - Top-10 holder concentration. The only top-10 figure retrieved was CoinCarp's 0.00% against 319,672 holders, which is unusable. - Mint and freeze authority. - Token decimals. - Split of the 19 May 2027 unlock between Ecosystem Growth and Protocol Development. - Whether the reserve's PYTH is counted in tracker circulating supply. - Other-chain PYTH copies. - **Insider definition:** I counted Private Sales plus Protocol Development (core contributors) as insiders, giving 20.0%. Ecosystem Growth (52%) and Publisher Rewards (22%) are excluded because their recipients are not verified. Counting Ecosystem Growth would move the indicator to 🔴, and that sensitivity is unquantified. - **Price conflict (used Coinbase, the only explicitly dated 14 Oct figure):** $0.08089 (Coinbase), $0.08226 (Crypto.com, undated), $0.083 (Kraken, undated), $0.085 (DefiLlama, undated), $0.07 (Blockworks, undated), $0.04026 (CoinStats, undated, likely older). - **Market cap conflict (used Coinbase):** $637.82M (Coinbase), $647.83M (Crypto.com), $649.97M (Kraken), $666.81M (DefiLlama), $533.73M (Blockworks). - **FDV conflict (used calculated $809.9M):** $825.36M (Kraken), $846.75M (DefiLlama, which also shows an "outstanding FDV" of $705.98M), $678.11M (Blockworks). - **24h volume conflict (used Coinbase's $60.22M):** $66.02M (Crypto.com), $69.39M (Kraken), $49.4M (Blockworks), $30.74M (CoinStats), $89M (an 8 Oct article). The 🔴 status holds at every value, since volume would need to exceed about $573M to fall below 30% (calculated). - **Circulating supply:** Coinbase, Kraken, CoinStats and Tokenomist agree at about 7.875B (within 0.001%). Older pages showing 5.74-5.75B predate the May 2026 unlock and are stale. - **Remaining unlock conflict:** DropsTab (2.13B), Tokenomist and CMC AI (2.125B) agree. Messari's undated page lists about 2.66B remaining (including 1.07B for Publisher Rewards), which appears to predate the May 2026 release, so I did not use it. Tokenomics.com (211 days old) shows all pools "Finished". I did not use that either. - **Vesting-type conflict:** Cliff events (Tokenomist, Messari) versus "linear 36 months" (DropsTab) versus "6-month cliff, then linear every 12 months" (Tokenomics.com). I used the cliff reading because the May 2026 release was a single event. - **Reserve holdings:** Pyth's own post gives 41M in one passage and 42M in another. A monthly buyback of about $574,500 (about 6.8M PYTH) is a BigGo estimate that assumes all current revenue qualifies, so I did not use it as a data point. - **Supply gap:** 18,143 PYTH (0.00018%) between Coinbase total supply and the documented 10B. The cause is Not verified. - **Stale snapshots (>30 days):** - CMC holder count (158 days). - The Block (1,056 days) and CoinLore. - Tokenomist pages (411-512 days per metadata, although the supply figures match current data). - Pyth tokenomics blog (559 days) and the Bitrue guide (960 days). Both are static genesis data. - Tokenomics.com (211 days). - Buyback launch articles (302-306 days). - May 2026 unlock news (about 150 days).