CUSTOMER RETENTION ANALYSIS Customer Status: High-Value At Risk / Dissatisfied / Inactive Customer Value: 8 orders in the past 12 months totaling $1,240, with a previous purchase pattern of approximately every 4–6 weeks. The 4-month gap is substantially longer than the stated normal purchase interval. Main Risk/Opportunity: The customer has demonstrated meaningful purchase value and repeat behavior, while the reason for disengagement is explicitly known. This creates a strong opportunity for targeted service recovery and win-back. Known Churn Reason: Delivery problem / negative experience. The last order arrived one week late, causing the customer to miss the expected timing for an event and resulting in disappointment. Retention Priority: HIGH RETENTION DECISION Recommended Action: Personalized service-recovery message followed by an approved 15% apology discount on the customer's next order. Reason: The customer's disengagement is directly connected to a service failure rather than a confirmed price or product issue. The first priority should therefore be acknowledging the late delivery and rebuilding trust. Because the customer has substantial repeat-purchase history and the 15% apology discount is an explicitly available retention action, it is appropriate to use it as part of the recovery. Incentive Assessment: Incentive Recommended The 15% apology discount is justified by the documented negative service experience and the high-value customer's previous purchasing pattern. It should be positioned as an apology/service-recovery gesture, not as a generic promotional discount. Recommended Strategy: Personally acknowledge the late delivery and its impact. Apologize sincerely without making excuses. Make clear that the business values the customer's previous relationship. Offer the approved 15% apology discount on the next order. Avoid aggressive promotional language. After the message, monitor whether the customer returns rather than repeatedly contacting them. Risk Level: MEDIUM Risk Considerations: Offering discounts unnecessarily can increase retention costs. Repeated service failures could undermine the apology and discount. The customer may still be hesitant because the original problem involved an event-sensitive delivery. No claim should be made that future deliveries will definitely be on time because that capability was not supplied. Excessive follow-up could make the customer feel pressured. WIN-BACK MESSAGE Subject: We’re sorry about your last order Hi, I wanted to personally apologize for your last order arriving a week late, especially when you needed it for an event. We understand how disappointing that experience must have been, and we’re sorry we let you down. You’ve trusted us with 8 orders over the past year, and we genuinely value that relationship. We’d appreciate the opportunity to earn your trust again. As a sincere apology, we’d like to offer you 15% off your next order. There’s absolutely no pressure—we simply hope we can provide you with a better experience the next time you shop with us. Thank you for giving us the opportunity to make things right. Warm regards, Customer Support Team INTERNAL ACTION PLAN Action Required: Send the personalized service-recovery/win-back message with the approved 15% apology discount and record the interaction for future retention activity. Responsible Area: Customer Support — primary responsibility for service recovery. Marketing/Loyalty — may support the targeted win-back if required. Verification Required: Verify that the 15% apology discount is currently approved and available for this customer. Verify the applicable terms of the discount before sending it. No specific delivery-performance promise should be made unless Operations confirms one. Customer Follow-Up: Allow the customer an opportunity to return without excessive contact. If they respond negatively or raise another unresolved service issue, prioritize resolving that issue rather than sending additional promotional offers. ESCALATION Manual Review Required: NO Reason: The customer has a clearly documented service issue, the retention objective is defined, and an approved retention incentive is supplied. There is no stated serious financial, reputational, or policy issue requiring escalation. No manual review required.