**Headline:** Free signups went up, paid conversions went down, and the gap is almost certainly the new trial extension giving people more time before deciding. **What the numbers show:** - Free signups: 287 vs. 245, +17% week-over-week. Real increase. - Paid conversions in the 7-day window: 8 vs. 14, -43%. Substantial drop. - Time-to-paid: 3.2 days vs. 2.1 days, +52%. People are taking longer before converting. - Channel mix is roughly stable, so the changes aren't explained by traffic source shifting. **Likely explanations:** 1. **Trial extension changed conversion timing, not conversion rate.** Most likely. The 7-day window now captures fewer conversions because the extended trial pushes some of them past the window. People are still converting; just later. Confirm: check 14-day or 21-day conversion in two weeks. If 14-day conversion is comparable to last week's 7-day conversion, this is the answer. 2. **Trial extension brought in lower-intent signups.** Possible. A more generous trial could attract people who are less serious about converting. Confirm: check the source mix more carefully (specifically whether the additional 42 signups came disproportionately from one channel) and check qualitative signals like activation rates. 3. **Genuine drop in paid intent, unrelated to the trial change.** Lowest priority but worth ruling out. Could be a competitor launch, a pricing change rumor, seasonality. Confirm: look at the absolute paid conversion number from two weeks ago and the pattern over the last 8 weeks. **What's not in the data:** - We don't see the conversion outcomes for users who signed up before the trial change. Their "7-day window" expired before the change, so the data shown is for a different cohort than prior weeks. - We don't see activation metrics (whether new signups did the key onboarding actions). If activation dropped alongside paid conversion, that's a stronger signal of lower intent. - We don't have a comparison to historical trial-extension experiments, if any exist. **What to do next:** 1. Wait two weeks before drawing a strong conclusion. Look at 14-day and 21-day conversion for last week's cohort. 2. Pull the source mix for the 42 marginal signups (new signups vs. prior week's count) to check whether they came from a different channel mix than the baseline. **Calibrated read:** Suggestive but needs more data. The most likely story (timing shift from the trial extension) is a clean explanation that fits the pattern, but it's a hypothesis until the longer-window conversion data lands.