# KPI Decision Brief ## 1. Executive snapshot * April visits increased **20.0%**, but orders and revenue increased only **7.1%**; conversion declined from **2.8% to 2.5%** (**−0.3 percentage points**) [C1–C4]. * Paid-media spend increased **42.9%**, substantially faster than revenue. The blended revenue-to-spend ratio fell from **5.00 to 3.75** [C5–C6]. * The supplied **ROAS target of 4.5 cannot be assessed** because paid-attributed revenue was not provided; total revenue cannot automatically be treated as paid-media revenue [E7, C6]. * Refunded-order rate increased from **4.0% to 6.0%**, exceeding the **5% guardrail by 1.0 percentage point** [C9–C10]. * Immediate focus: protect the refund guardrail and obtain channel-level attributable performance before materially reallocating budget. ## 2. Input audit | Check | Result | Decision impact | | -------------------------- | --------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------ | | Period comparability | **Pass** — same countries, website and attribution window [E1] | Month comparison is valid. | | Units and currency | **Pass** — revenue and spend in EUR | No conversion required. | | KPI definitions | **Caution** — visits, orders, customers and refunds are not further defined | Limits diagnostic precision. | | ROAS denominator/numerator | **Blocked** — paid-attributed revenue missing [E7] | Target attainment cannot be established. | | Refund-rate denominator | **Pass** — refunded orders divided by orders | Guardrail can be assessed. | | Channel/country detail | **Blocked** | No evidence identifies where budget should move. | | Contradictions | **Pass** — no numerical conflicts detected | Calculations reconcile. | ## 3. Evidence ledger | ID | Type | Evidence or calculation | Source or formula | Confidence | | --- | ----------- | ----------------------------------------------- | ------------------- | ---------- | | E1 | Evidence | April and March are comparable | Supplied context | High | | E2 | Evidence | Visits: 120,000 vs 100,000 | Supplied | High | | E3 | Evidence | Orders: 3,000 vs 2,800 | Supplied | High | | E4 | Evidence | Revenue: €225,000 vs €210,000 | Supplied | High | | E5 | Evidence | Spend: €60,000 vs €42,000 | Supplied | High | | E6 | Evidence | Refunds: 180 vs 112 | Supplied | High | | E7 | Evidence | ROAS target 4.5; attributed revenue absent | Supplied | High | | C1 | Calculation | Visits +20,000, **+20.0%** | 120,000−100,000 | High | | C2 | Calculation | Orders +200, **+7.1%** | 200÷2,800 | High | | C3 | Calculation | Revenue +€15,000, **+7.1%** | 15,000÷210,000 | High | | C4 | Calculation | Conversion: 2.5% vs 2.8%; **−0.3 pp** | Orders÷visits | High | | C5 | Calculation | Spend +€18,000, **+42.9%** | 18,000÷42,000 | High | | C6 | Calculation | Blended revenue/spend: 3.75 vs 5.00 | Revenue÷spend | Medium | | C7 | Calculation | AOV: €75 in both months | Revenue÷orders | High | | C8 | Calculation | Spend/new customer: €28.57 vs €22.11 | Spend÷new customers | Medium | | C9 | Calculation | Refund rate: 6.0% vs 4.0%; **+2.0 pp** | Refunds÷orders | High | | C10 | Calculation | April refund rate is **1.0 pp above guardrail** | 6.0%−5.0% | High | ## 4. KPI scorecard | KPI | Current | Comparison or target | Change | Status | Evidence | | ----------- | ------------: | -------------------: | -------------------: | ------------------ | -------- | | Visits | 120,000 | 100,000 | +20.0% | Increased | C1 | | Orders | 3,000 | 2,800 | +7.1% | Increased | C2 | | Revenue | €225,000 | €210,000 | +7.1% | Increased | C3 | | Conversion | 2.5% | 2.8% | −0.3 pp | Decreased | C4 | | AOV | €75 | €75 | €0 | Unchanged | C7 | | ROAS | Not available | Target 4.5 | Not assessable | **Not assessable** | E7 | | Refund rate | 6.0% | Maximum 5.0% | +1.0 pp vs guardrail | Guardrail exceeded | C10 | ## 5. What the data supports **Facts:** Traffic, orders and revenue increased; conversion declined; AOV was unchanged; refund rate exceeded its guardrail [C1–C4, C7, C10]. **Interpretation:** Incremental traffic did not translate into proportional order growth, while substantially more paid spend was used [C1, C2, C5]. **Hypotheses:** The paid-social launch or higher free-shipping threshold may relate to conversion or refund changes, but neither effect is causally established [E1, C4, C9]. **Unknowns:** Paid-media ROAS, channel profitability, country-level performance, refund value and the better destination for reallocated budget [E7]. ## 6. Decision queue | Priority | Recommended action | Evidence | Why now | Effort | Suggested owner | Timing | Success metric | Guardrail | | -------- | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | --------- | --------------------------------- | ------ | --------------- | -------------- | --------------------------------- | -------------------------- | | 1 | Investigate refunds by channel, country, product and customer cohort | C9–C10 | Guardrail exceeded | Medium | To assign | To assign | Refund rate | Maximum 5% | | 2 | Run a reversible fixed-budget comparison of paid social against existing channels | E7, C5–C6 | Allocation evidence is missing | Medium | To assign | Next two weeks | Paid-attributed ROAS | Refund rate ≤5% | | 3 | Avoid broad reallocation until attributable channel reporting is available | E7 | Current data cannot rank channels | Low | To assign | Immediate | Completeness of attributable ROAS | Total budget not increased | ## 7. Measurement plan **Baseline:** April channel, country and customer-cohort performance. **Primary success metric:** Paid-attributed ROAS. **Guardrail:** Refunded-order rate, maximum **5%**. **Segmentation:** Country, paid-social versus existing channels, new versus returning customers. **Review point:** End of the next two-week allocation period. **Decision rule:** Reallocate toward the tested segment with higher paid-attributed ROAS only when the refund guardrail is met. ## 8. Risks, limitations, and blocking questions Risks include attribution ambiguity, no controlled experiment and possible mix changes. 1. What revenue is attributable to each paid channel? 2. How are refunded orders assigned to campaign and order month? 3. What are conversion and refund rates by country and channel? 4. What was the channel-level April budget? 5. Are revenue figures gross or net of refunds? ## 9. Analyst appendix Conversion = orders ÷ visits. AOV = revenue ÷ orders. Refund rate = refunded orders ÷ orders. Blended revenue/spend = total revenue ÷ paid-media spend; **this is not confirmed ROAS**.