1. AVOIDANCE MAP - Thesis review: ambiguous, high-stakes, judged by an expert; replaced by more reading and organizing (OBSERVED). - Tax form: boring, low ambiguity, deadline far; replaced by later-is-fine logic (OBSERVED: "I'll do it the night before like always"). Repeating feature: delay is longest where competence is evaluated, shortest where only time is needed. 2. THE EMOTION BEFORE THE DELAY Shame/self-doubt: "he will see how little I understand", "I feel stupid" (OBSERVED). Relief comes from doing safe, productive-looking tasks. 3. DRIVERS (0-3) Fear of judgment 3 · Perfectionism 2 · Low expectancy of success 2 · Unclear first step 1 · Overload 1 · Deadline-dependence 2 (tax form only). Top 2: fear of judgment, perfectionism. Alternative explanation: the review may be genuinely under-scoped by the supervisor (UNKNOWN, no information about guidance). 5. THE HIDDEN PAYOFF LIKELY: "I need 5 more papers" protects the self-image of a capable student: unfinished work cannot be judged. 8. THE AVOIDANCE LOOP Open document -> fear of being exposed -> "read more first" -> research/organizing -> relief + feeling productive -> deadline closer, more shame -> 2am panic writing works -> belief "I need pressure" is reinforced. 9. 14-DAY EXPERIMENT PLAN 1) Bad-draft rule: 25 minutes of writing at 21:30, no new papers allowed. Measure: words per day. 2) Send the supervisor a 1-page messy outline this week. Test: is the feared criticism as bad as predicted (rate 0-10 before and after)? 3) Reading cap: max 2 new papers per writing session. 4) Tax form: 15 minutes on Saturday morning, paired with favorite coffee (temptation bundling). 10. WHAT TO STOP TRYING Waiting to "understand enough": for this profile, more input raises the bar instead of lowering fear. FINAL SYNTHESIS - Core driver: fear that writing will expose low competence. - Leverage point: early, low-stakes feedback. - First action tomorrow: write 5 messy sentences about one paper you already read. - Thesis: "You delay when your work can be judged, because unfinished work feels safer; you start when the stakes feel low and the hour is late." CONFIDENCE MAP: High: fear of judgment. Moderate: perfectionism. Low: real scope problems with supervision.