EXECUTIVE DECISION Recommended path: proceed Recommended offer: Run the routine set at £84 from 20–30 November 2026, supported by free shipping over £65, rather than a sitewide discount. Why: (1) The £84 routine set directly supports the stated objective of increasing routine-set sales and AOV; (2) its calculated contribution is £51.06/order, 60.8% margin before seller-funded shipping, comfortably above the supplied 45% minimum; (3) it preserves individual-product pricing and gives customers a simple answer to the stated complete-routine objection. Confidence: Medium, because supplied unit economics support the recommendation, but CAC, taxes, refunds, overheads and demand are unknown and the transaction fee is estimated. INPUT AND EVIDENCE AUDIT Item Value Status Used in calculation? Gap or verification action Cleanser regular price £28 VERIFIED Yes Human approval before launch Moisturiser regular price £34 VERIFIED Yes Human approval before launch Serum regular price £42 VERIFIED Yes Human approval before launch Routine-set regular price £94 VERIFIED Yes Human approval before launch Cleanser COGS £7 VERIFIED Yes None supplied Moisturiser COGS £9 VERIFIED Yes None supplied Serum COGS £12 VERIFIED Yes None supplied Routine-set COGS £28 VERIFIED-derived from supplied component COGS Yes Confirm no additional bundle-specific product cost Payment fee 2.9% + £0.30/order ESTIMATED Yes Verify actual Shopify/payment-provider rate Pick/pack £2.20/order VERIFIED Yes None supplied Seller-funded shipping £4.10 when offered VERIFIED Yes, where applicable Confirm operational applicability to all qualifying UK orders CAC Unknown UNKNOWN No Obtain by campaign/customer segment Taxes Unknown UNKNOWN No Confirm VAT/tax treatment and whether supplied prices/costs include tax Refund allowance Unknown UNKNOWN No Obtain historical/refund assumption Cleanser inventory 600 units VERIFIED Capacity check Monitor component depletion Moisturiser inventory 450 units VERIFIED Capacity check Monitor component depletion Serum inventory 300 units VERIFIED Capacity check Serum limits complete routine sets to no more than 300 before other sales Minimum contribution margin 45% VERIFIED Yes Offer guardrail Maximum discount 20% VERIFIED constraint Yes All proposed discounts remain within ceiling Offer window 20–30 November 2026 VERIFIED Yes Use only this genuine deadline Fragrance-free formulations Supplied differentiator VERIFIED No Claim may be used subject to human approval Clinical claims None supplied UNKNOWN/not supplied No Do not make clinical or skin-result claims OBJECTIVE AND CONSTRAINT CHECK Objective or constraint Implication for the offer Conflict or risk Response Increase routine-set sales Prioritise the three-product set Sitewide discount could dilute set focus Lead with routine-set offer Increase AOV Favour bundles/thresholds over single-item discounting 15% sitewide reduces prices across catalogue Avoid sitewide as primary mechanic Maximum 20% discount Discount must remain within ceiling None for supplied options £84 set is £10 below £94 reference price, approximately 10.6% lower Minimum 45% contribution margin Every promoted basket must clear guardrail on supplied variable costs Unknown CAC/refunds/taxes could reduce economics Monitor contribution and obtain missing costs Serum inventory 300 Complete routine-set capacity is serum-constrained Heavy set demand competes with serum standalone demand Establish stock allocation/stop rule before launch Calm, transparent voice Simple, factual offer communication Aggressive urgency conflicts with brand Use genuine 30 November deadline only No fake scarcity Inventory cannot become marketing scarcity unless genuinely applicable Manufactured stock messaging prohibited Keep inventory as internal control unless approved and current No skin-result guarantees Promotion must focus on products/routine/value Unsupported efficacy claims prohibited Use factual product/routine wording No “clean beauty” superiority Avoid comparative superiority framing Differentiator could be overextended Say “fragrance-free”; do not infer superiority Human approval for prices/claims Offer cannot be published without approval Execution dependency Obtain sign-off before launch BASELINE UNIT ECONOMICS Cleanser: Payment fee = (£28 × 2.9%) + £0.30 = £1.11. Unit contribution = £28 − £7 − £1.11 − £2.20 = £17.69. Contribution margin = £17.69 ÷ £28 × 100 = 63.2%. Moisturiser: Payment fee = (£34 × 2.9%) + £0.30 = £1.29. Unit contribution = £34 − £9 − £1.29 − £2.20 = £21.51. Contribution margin = £21.51 ÷ £34 × 100 = 63.3%. Serum: Payment fee = (£42 × 2.9%) + £0.30 = £1.52. Unit contribution = £42 − £12 − £1.52 − £2.20 = £26.28. Contribution margin = £26.28 ÷ £42 × 100 = 62.6%. Routine set at regular £94: Component COGS = £7 + £9 + £12 = £28. Payment fee = (£94 × 2.9%) + £0.30 = £3.03. Unit contribution = £94 − £28 − £3.03 − £2.20 = £60.77. Contribution margin = £60.77 ÷ £94 × 100 = 64.7%. These calculations exclude CAC, taxes, refunds, overheads and any seller-funded shipping unless explicitly shown. They are contribution calculations, not net profit. The payment-fee input is estimated. OFFER SCENARIO COMPARISON Scenario Mechanics Customer value Price/AOV Unit contribution Margin % Capacity/stock effect Key risk Status Base routine set All three products Existing bundled convenience; £10 below £104 component total £94 £60.77 64.7% Uses 1 of each; serum bottleneck No promotional change CALCULABLE 15% sitewide — routine set 15% off £94 £14.10 reduction £79.90 £47.08 58.9% Could accelerate demand across all inventory Discounts products not central to set objective CALCULABLE Routine set at £84 All three for £84 £10 reduction from supplied £94 set price; £20 below £104 individual total £84 £51.06 60.8% Uses 1 of each; max 300 sets before standalone sales Serum bottleneck/cannibalisation CALCULABLE Buy two, save 10% Any two products, assuming discount applies to qualifying pair Lower-cost multi-item entry £50.40–£75.60 for two identical units; £55.80–£68.40 for mixed pairs £32.44–£46.91 identical; £35.68–£42.92 mixed 62.0%–64.4% Could shift stock unevenly Mechanics/eligible combinations need approval PARTIALLY CALCULABLE Free shipping over £65 — £94 set Seller funds £4.10 shipping Removes shipping charge where applicable £94 £56.67 60.3% Encourages qualifying baskets; still serum-constrained for sets Existing customer-paid shipping terms unknown CALCULABLE £84 set + free shipping £84 set qualifies for >£65 shipping offer Bundle value plus seller-funded shipping £84 £46.96 55.9% Stronger set demand could accelerate serum depletion Two incentives reduce contribution simultaneously CALCULABLE RECOMMENDED Q4 OFFER ARCHITECTURE Primary offer: Routine set for £84, containing cleanser, moisturiser and serum, available during the genuine 20–30 November 2026 offer window; final price and public claims require human approval. Entry option: Keep individual products at regular prices rather than applying a sitewide discount. Premium/bundle option: Routine set at £84 with free shipping where the order meets the approved over-£65 threshold; calculated contribution is £46.96 and 55.9% before unknown CAC, taxes, refunds and overheads. VIP/returning-customer option: None; no supplied evidence supports an additional VIP discount or benefit. Cross-sell/post-purchase option: None recommended from supplied products because the routine set already contains all three catalogue products and no additional complementary product is supplied. What not to offer: Do not lead with 15% sitewide. Although calculable margins remain above 45% on supplied costs, it discounts the entire catalogue without directly solving the stated complete-routine question and provides a weaker strategic focus than the routine set. PROFIT AND BREAK-EVEN GUARDRAILS To maintain a 45% contribution margin under the supplied estimated transaction fee and £2.20 pick/pack, the minimum theoretical prices before seller-funded shipping are: cleanser £18.23; moisturiser £22.07; serum £27.83; routine set £58.54. Formula: price − COGS − (2.9% × price + £0.30) − £2.20 = 45% × price. For the routine set with £4.10 seller-funded shipping, theoretical minimum price at a 45% contribution margin = (£28 + £0.30 + £2.20 + £4.10) ÷ (1 − 0.029 − 0.45) = £66.41. This is an economic guardrail, not a recommended selling price. Break-even quantity: Cannot calculate because no fixed campaign cost is supplied. Formula = fixed campaign cost ÷ unit contribution. Maximum capacity/stock rule: complete routine sets consume one cleanser, one moisturiser and one serum; supplied inventory therefore permits no more than 300 sets if all existing serum inventory were allocated to sets. Actual sellable set allocation must be lower if stock is reserved for standalone serum sales. Stop/pause condition: pause or revise the offer if verified variable costs cause contribution margin to fall below 45%, or when the pre-approved serum/set stock allocation or fulfilment capacity is reached. Q4 CAMPAIGN MAP Phase Audience Offer/message job Channel Genuine timing trigger Operational requirement Pre-launch Existing customers and first-time buyers Explain which three products make up the routine; prepare transparent offer Shopify-owned channels; exact channels not supplied Before 20 Nov 2026 Approve £84 price, claims, inventory allocation and shipping mechanic Launch Existing customers and first-time buyers Present the routine set as the simple three-product option Shopify store; other channels Unknown 20 Nov 2026 Activate approved pricing and stock controls Offer period Gift buyers and routine shoppers Reinforce simple routine, fragrance-free formulation and transparent price Shopify store; other channels Unknown 20–30 Nov 2026 Monitor set sales, component stock, contribution and fulfilment Final day Eligible shoppers State factual end date without manufactured urgency Approved channels 30 Nov 2026 Remove/expire promotion as advertised Christmas/year-end UK customers Return to regular architecture unless another approved offer exists Shopify store After 30 Nov; exact Christmas campaign dates Unknown Do not extend November urgency or pricing without a genuine new approval CLAIMS, URGENCY AND APPROVAL LEDGER Proposed statement Supported? Evidence required Safe wording Owner/approval “Routine set £84” Yes, proposed offer Final price approval “Routine set £84” HUMAN REVIEW REQUIRED “20–30 November 2026” Yes Confirm campaign setup “Offer available 20–30 November 2026.” HUMAN REVIEW REQUIRED “Save £10 on the regular £94 set” Yes, subject to genuine reference-price approval Confirm £94 qualifies as lawful/genuine reference price “£84, compared with the regular £94 set price” HUMAN REVIEW REQUIRED “£20 less than buying all three individually” Arithmetic supported: £28 + £34 + £42 = £104 Confirm individual prices/reference-price rules “£84 for the set; individual supplied prices total £104.” HUMAN REVIEW REQUIRED “Complete routine” Partially supported by customer context/current set Confirm approved product-language usage “Three-product routine set with cleanser, moisturiser and serum.” HUMAN REVIEW REQUIRED “Fragrance-free” Yes Confirm formulation claim remains current for all included products “Fragrance-free formulations.” HUMAN REVIEW REQUIRED Skin-result/clinical claim No Clinical substantiation not supplied Do not use HUMAN REVIEW REQUIRED “Clean beauty” superiority No/prohibited Not applicable Do not use HUMAN REVIEW REQUIRED “Selling fast” / “almost gone” No Current genuine inventory/demand evidence would be required Do not use unsupported scarcity HUMAN REVIEW REQUIRED “Ends 30 November” Yes Confirm offer is actually configured to end then “Offer ends 30 November 2026.” HUMAN REVIEW REQUIRED MEASUREMENT PLAN Metric Baseline needed Calculation Decision use Review timing Routine-set orders Pre-campaign routine-set order count Campaign set orders versus comparable supplied baseline Assess set-sales objective Daily and post-campaign Routine-set share Total orders and set orders Set orders ÷ total orders × 100 Determine whether architecture shifts mix toward sets Daily/post-campaign AOV Historical AOV Gross order revenue ÷ orders Test AOV objective Daily/post-campaign Contribution/order Actual price and verified variable costs Revenue/order − supplied applicable variable costs Protect economics Daily Contribution margin % Actual contribution/order Contribution ÷ selling price × 100 Enforce 45% minimum Daily Serum stock Opening and remaining sellable inventory Opening stock − units sold/allocated Protect set availability and standalone allocation Daily Shipping subsidy/order Actual qualifying shipments Seller-funded shipping ÷ qualifying orders Validate £4.10 assumption/offer cost During and after Payment fees Actual processor charges Actual fees ÷ applicable orders/revenue Replace estimated 2.9% + £0.30 assumption Post-campaign CAC Acquisition spend and attributable acquired customers Applicable acquisition spend ÷ acquired customers Evaluate economics beyond pre-CAC contribution Post-campaign Refund rate/cost Historical and campaign refunds Refunded orders/value ÷ applicable orders/revenue Reconcile realised contribution Post-campaign ACTION PLAN Before launch: 1. Verify the estimated payment fee against the actual provider rate. 2. Confirm tax/VAT treatment, refund allowance and any other variable costs. 3. Approve £84 routine-set pricing and £65 free-shipping threshold. 4. Confirm whether £94 and individual prices qualify as genuine reference prices for public savings statements. 5. Allocate serum inventory between sets and standalone sales. 6. Confirm fulfilment capacity. 7. Approve fragrance-free and routine wording. 8. Configure the genuine 20–30 November window and test checkout arithmetic. During campaign: Monitor routine-set orders, AOV, contribution margin, payment fees, seller-funded shipping and component inventory. Keep contribution margin at or above the supplied 45% minimum and pause the offer if the approved serum allocation or operational capacity is reached. Use only the genuine campaign deadline and current, verified claims. After campaign: Reconcile actual selling prices, fees, shipping subsidies, refunds and any available acquisition costs; calculate realised contribution rather than treating revenue as profit; compare routine-set mix and AOV with the relevant pre-campaign baseline; document stock effects and decide which mechanics merit reuse. DATA STILL NEEDED Actual payment-processing fee, because the supplied 2.9% + £0.30 is estimated and affects every contribution calculation. VAT/tax treatment and whether supplied prices and costs include tax, because tax effects are excluded from the calculations. Refund allowance/history, because realised contribution may be lower than the pre-refund calculations. CAC by relevant segment/channel, because acquisition economics cannot currently be assessed. Historical routine-set sales and AOV, because improvement against the commercial objectives cannot be quantified without baselines. Actual fulfilment capacity for 20–30 November, because inventory alone does not establish operational capacity. Approved allocation of the 300 serums between routine sets and standalone sales, because serum is the set-stock bottleneck. Current shipping policy below/above £65, because the customer-value effect of free shipping cannot be fully assessed without the existing policy. Any fixed campaign cost, because break-even order quantity cannot otherwise be calculated. Reference-price/legal approval for savings statements, because arithmetic alone does not establish compliance. FINAL HUMAN-REVIEW CHECK Verify prices, costs, stock, dates, fulfilment, tax treatment, refund assumptions, reference-price rules, platform terms and every public claim before launch.