## A. Input audit Accepted values: Product = Granola bar 60 g; currency = EUR; baseline units = 800; regular price = €3.50; unit variable cost = €1.90; promotional price = €2.99; forecast promotional units = 1,100; campaign spend = €150.00. The comparison period is the same 4-week period. The wholesale promotional stand fee is included in campaign spend. Calculations assume constant unit variable cost and zero baseline promotional spend. Variable cost is not treated as full accounting cost. ## B. Comparison table | Metric | Baseline | Promotion | |---|---:|---:| | Units | 800 | 1,100 | | Revenue | €2,800.00 | €3,289.00 | | Unit contribution | €1.60 | €1.09 | | Contribution after promotional spend | €1,280.00 | €1,049.00 | Forecast unit uplift: **37.5%** ## C. Break-even Baseline contribution: €1,280.00 = 800 × (€3.50 − €1.90) Break-even promotional units: **CEILING((€1,280.00 + €150.00) / (€2.99 − €1.90))** = CEILING(€1,430.00 / €1.09) = CEILING(1,311.93) = **1,312 units** Required uplift versus baseline: (1,312 / 800 − 1) × 100 = **64.0%** The forecast of 1,100 units is **212 units below break-even**. ## D. Verdict **NEGATIVE** Incremental contribution = **−€231.00** At the forecast volume of 1,100 units, the lower unit contribution and €150.00 campaign spend leave the promotion €231.00 below baseline contribution. ## E. Three management actions 1. **Immediate decision check:** Do not approve the promotion on the current forecast alone; confirm whether reaching at least **1,312 units** is realistically supported by internal evidence. 2. **In-store/data validation:** Track actual weekly promotional units against the 1,312-unit break-even threshold and validate the 1,100-unit forecast using comparable internal periods. 3. **Risk or margin-protection step:** Consider a higher promotional price and/or lower campaign spend to reduce the break-even volume before launch. ## F. Math audit Promotional contribution: **1,100 × (€2.99 − €1.90) − €150.00 = 1,100 × €1.09 − €150.00 = €1,049.00** Incremental contribution: **€1,049.00 − €1,280.00 = −€231.00**