MODEL STATUS: COMPLETE. The eight-week model reconciles from the supplied USD 24,500 opening cash using only the stated cash inflows, outflows, scenario adjustments, and USD 12,000 minimum buffer. ASSUMPTION REGISTER: | Item | Amount or Rule | Timing | Confidence | Source or Status | | ------------------------ | --------------------------------------------------------------: | ---------------------------- | ------------------- | -------------------------------------- | | Opening bank cash | USD 24,500 | Start of Week 1 | Verified input | Supplied | | Restricted cash | USD 0 | Opening | Verified input | Supplied | | Minimum operating buffer | USD 12,000 | Every week | Verified input | Supplied | | Week 1 retainer | +USD 8,000 | Week 1 | High | Supplied | | Project milestone | +USD 12,000 | Base Week 3 | Medium | Supplied; may slip 2 weeks | | Week 5 retainer | +USD 6,500 | Week 5 | High | Supplied | | Project balance | +USD 9,000 | Base Week 7 | Medium | Supplied | | Overdue receivable | +USD 3,200 | Excluded Base; Upside Week 2 | Timing uncertain | Supplied scenario rule | | Payroll | -USD 7,200 | Weeks 2, 4, 6, 8 | Supplied | Recurring in forecast | | Rent + software | -USD 2,100 | Weeks 1, 5 | Supplied | Recurring in forecast | | Tax reserve transfer | -USD 3,000 | Week 4 | Supplied | Treatment beyond transfer not supplied | | Existing contractor | -USD 2,400 | Weeks 3, 4 | Supplied | Existing commitment | | Proposed contractor | -USD 1,500/week | Weeks 5–8 | Proposed | Included in model to test hire | | Owner drawings | -USD 2,000 | Weeks 2, 6 | Supplied | Flexible | | Downside milestone | Move +USD 12,000 from W3 to W5 | Week 5 | Scenario assumption | Supplied | | Downside project balance | Exclude +USD 9,000 | Week 7 | Scenario assumption | Supplied | | Hiring rule | Base closing cash ≥ USD 16,000 every week after contractor cost | Weeks 5–8 | Decision rule | USD 12,000 buffer + USD 4,000 margin | BASE CASH-FLOW TABLE: | Period | Opening Cash | Inflows | Outflows | Net Movement | Closing Cash | Buffer Variance | | ------ | -----------: | ---------: | ---------: | -----------: | -------------: | --------------: | | Week 1 | USD 24,500 | +USD 8,000 | -USD 2,100 | +USD 5,900 | **USD 30,400** | +USD 18,400 | | Week 2 | 30,400 | 0 | -9,200 | -9,200 | **21,200** | +9,200 | | Week 3 | 21,200 | +12,000 | -2,400 | +9,600 | **30,800** | +18,800 | | Week 4 | 30,800 | 0 | -12,600 | -12,600 | **18,200** | +6,200 | | Week 5 | 18,200 | +6,500 | -3,600 | +2,900 | **21,100** | +9,100 | | Week 6 | 21,100 | 0 | -9,200 | -9,200 | **11,900** | **-100** | | Week 7 | 11,900 | +9,000 | -1,500 | +7,500 | **19,400** | +7,400 | | Week 8 | 19,400 | 0 | -8,700 | -8,700 | **10,700** | **-1,300** | Formula each week: **Opening Cash + Inflows − cash payments = Closing Cash**. Buffer Variance = Closing Cash − USD 12,000. SCENARIO COMPARISON: | Measure | Base | Downside | Upside | | ---------------------------------- | -------------: | ---------------------------------------: | -----------------------: | | Week 1 closing | USD 30,400 | USD 30,400 | USD 30,400 | | Week 2 | 21,200 | 21,200 | 24,400 | | Week 3 | 30,800 | 18,800 | 34,000 | | Week 4 | 18,200 | **6,200** | 21,400 | | Week 5 | 21,100 | 21,100 | 24,300 | | Week 6 | **11,900** | **11,900** | 15,100 | | Week 7 | 19,400 | **10,400** | 22,600 | | Week 8 | **10,700** | **1,700** | 13,900 | | **Lowest closing cash** | **USD 10,700** | **USD 1,700** | **USD 13,900** | | **First USD 12,000 buffer breach** | **Week 6** | **Week 4** | None | | Exact changes | None | USD 12,000 W3 → W5; exclude USD 9,000 W7 | Add overdue USD 3,200 W2 | The proposed contractor costs **USD 6,000 total** across Weeks 5–8. The supplied hiring rule requires every Base closing balance to remain at least USD 16,000. Base falls to USD 11,900 in Week 6 and USD 10,700 in Week 8, so **the proposed hire does not pass the supplied hiring rule as currently modelled**. WATCHLIST: * **Timing:** The USD 12,000 milestone is material. Its supplied two-week delay produces a Week 4 closing balance of only USD 6,200 in Downside. * **Concentration:** The forecast depends materially on the USD 12,000 Week 3 milestone and USD 9,000 Week 7 balance. * **Collection:** The USD 3,200 overdue receivable has uncertain timing and is appropriately excluded from Base. * **Refund:** No refund amounts or rules were supplied, so no refund adjustment can be modelled. * **Cost:** Adding the proposed contractor creates USD 6,000 of forecast cash payments. * **Tax:** A USD 3,000 Week 4 reserve transfer is included, but no tax rates, liabilities, payment dates, or treatment beyond that transfer were supplied. * **Payroll:** USD 7,200 payroll creates substantial cash-use weeks in Weeks 2, 4, 6 and 8. * **Debt:** No credit facility exists in the supplied opening position; no financing is assumed. * **Data quality:** Medium-confidence project receipts create substantially more uncertainty than the high-confidence retainers. DECISION LADDER: **Do Now:** Do not treat the contractor as passing the stated hiring rule yet. The rule requires Base cash of at least USD 16,000 every week after contractor costs, while the model reaches USD 11,900 in Week 6 and USD 10,700 in Week 8. Track the USD 12,000 milestone and USD 9,000 balance separately because their timing materially affects the forecast. **Prepare If Triggered:** If projected Base closing cash for any week remains below **USD 16,000**, the supplied hiring threshold remains unmet. If the USD 12,000 milestone moves from Week 3 to Week 5, the Downside model indicates a Week 4 closing balance of USD 6,200, well below the USD 12,000 buffer. Because owner drawings are explicitly flexible, their timing can be evaluated as a possible scenario adjustment, but no alternative timing has been supplied, so it has not been assumed here. **Verify With a Professional:** Review the USD 3,000 tax reserve and any actual tax-payment obligations with an appropriate tax/accounting professional where necessary. If actual cash approaches levels at which payroll, taxes, contractual payments, or other legal obligations may not be met when due, obtain qualified accounting/legal or insolvency advice rather than relying on this planning model. MISSING OR UNRECONCILED DATA: Exact calendar dates within each forecast week are not supplied, so intra-week cash lows cannot be tested. Tax treatment/payment obligations beyond the USD 3,000 reserve transfer are unknown. No refund exposure amounts are supplied. No additional receipts or expenses beyond those listed can be assumed. The timing of the overdue USD 3,200 remains uncertain. PLAIN-LANGUAGE SUMMARY: This model tracks the supplied cash movements for eight weeks, including the proposed contractor. Base cash falls below the USD 12,000 operating buffer in Weeks 6 and 8, reaching a low of **USD 10,700**. More importantly for the hiring decision, it fails the stated USD 16,000 hiring threshold in those weeks, so the contractor does **not currently satisfy your hiring rule**. The Downside case is substantially tighter: delaying the USD 12,000 milestone causes a Week 4 buffer breach, and excluding the USD 9,000 balance leaves only **USD 1,700** at Week 8. Upside avoids a buffer breach and finishes at USD 13,900. This is a timing model based solely on supplied figures; it does not establish profitability, solvency, future collections, or guaranteed outcomes. Tax, payroll, contractual, lending, or potential insolvency questions should be reviewed with an appropriately qualified professional.