Example input
Underlying asset: Apple Inc. (AAPL)
Market outlook: bearish
Time horizon: 3 months
Risk tolerance: high
Capital allocation in %: 5%
Portfolio volume: $100000
Pricing options:
CallsforMarch 24, 2023
Contract Name Last Trade Date Strike Last Price Bid Ask Change % Change Volume Open Interest Implied Volatility
AAPL230324C00050000 2023-03-17 10:18AM EDT 50.00 105.94 104.45 105.70 +6.49 +6.53% 1 16 325.00%
AAPL230324C00055000 2023-03-06 4:14PM EDT 55.00 99.20 99.45 100.70 0.00 - 3 4 299.22%
AAPL230324C00060000 2023-03-14 12:26PM EDT 60.00 92.75 94.45 95.70 0.00 - 2 4 275.00%
AAPL230324C00080000 2023-03-15 2:27PM EDT 80.00 73.02 74.45 75.75 0.00 - 2 14 203.91%
AAPL230324C00085000 2023-02-10 10:51AM EDT 85.00 65.94 62.45 65.05 0.00 - - 1 0.00%
AAPL230324C00090000 2023-03-17 10:43AM EDT 90.00 65.05 64.45 65.75 +2.97 +4.78% 1 3 170.31%
AAPL230324C00110000 2023-03-17 11:02AM EDT 110.00 44.98 44.50 45.35 -0.52 -1.14% 34 2 137.31%
AAPL230324C00115000 2023-03-17 1:39PM EDT 115.00 40.60 39.50 40.80 +0.70 +1.75% 35 3 105.86%
AAPL230324C00120000 2023-03-17 3:51PM EDT 120.00 35.25 34.50 35.85 +4.00 +12.80% 30 60 94.92%
AAPL230324C00125000 2023-03-17 3:55PM EDT 125.00 30.45 29.55 30.80 -1.01 -3.21% 5 21 81.84%
AAPL230324C00128000 2023-03-17 1:59PM EDT 128.00 27.88 26.95 27.40 +2.83 +11.30% 4 9 74.12%
AAPL230324C00129000 2023-03-17 2:34PM EDT 129.00 26.21 25.55 26.85 +3.49 +15.36% 8 217 73.24%
AAPL230324C00130000 2023-03-17 3:21PM EDT 130.00 25.27 25.00 25.40 -0.91 -3.48% 156 101 70.70%
AAPL230324C00131000 2023-03-16 3:50PM EDT 131.00 25.25 23.55 24.40 0.00 - 5 25 78.22%
AAPL230324C00132000 2023-03-16 2:01PM EDT 132.00 23.30 23.00 23.40 0.00 - 1 117 65.53%
AAPL230324C00133000 2023-03-17 3:10PM EDT 133.00 21.97 22.00 22.40 +0.17 +0.78% 4 15 62.99%
AAPL230324C00134000 2023-03-17 1:43PM EDT 134.00 21.60 21.00 21.40 +0.73 +3.50% 9 11 60.45%
AAPL230324C00135000 2023-03-17 3:15PM EDT 135.00 20.00 20.05 20.45 -0.25 -1.23% 102 325 60.45%
AAPL230324C00136000 2023-03-17 2:31PM EDT 136.00 19.17 18.60 19.45 -1.25 -6.12% 13 257 65.82%
AAPL230324C00137000 2023-03-17 12:45PM EDT 137.00 18.32 18.05 18.45 -0.23 -1.24% 2 170 55.18%
AAPL230324C00138000 2023-03-17 3:38PM EDT 138.00 17.13 17.05 17.50 -1.25 -6.80% 6 268 53.61%
AAPL230324C00139000 2023-03-17 3:58PM EDT 139.00 16.80 15.65 16.45 -0.60 -3.45% 46 407 57.23%
AAPL230324C00140000 2023-03-17 3:58PM EDT 140.00 15.35 15.20 15.50 -0.57 -3.58% 395 952 51.07%
AAPL230324C00141000 2023-03-17 3:54PM EDT 141.00 14.65 14.20 14.50 +0.83 +6.01% 55 335 52.88%
AAPL230324C00142000 2023-03-17 3:15PM EDT 142.00 13.26 13.30 13.55 -1.44 -9.80% 284 358 51.22%
AAPL230324C00143000 2023-03-17 3:59PM EDT 143.00 12.43 12.25 12.65 -1.03 -7.65% 44 517 50.64%
AAPL230324C00144000 2023-03-17 3:12PM EDT 144.00 11.20 11.40 11.65 -1.03 -8.42% 37 594 47.51%
AAPL230324C00145000 2023-03-17 3:54PM EDT 145.00 10.73 10.50 10.65 -0.71 -6.21% 716 1,719 44.34%
AAPL230324C00146000 2023-03-17 3:54PM EDT 146.00 9.90 9.55 9.75 -0.51 -4.90% 576 1,161 43.21%
AAPL230324C00147000 2023-03-17 3:52PM EDT 147.00 9.00 8.65 8.90 -0.75 -7.69% 335 1,125 42.65%
AAPL230324C00148000 2023-03-17 3:59PM EDT 148.00 7.87 7.70 8.00 -0.73 -8.49% 288 1,921 40.87%
AAPL230324C00149000 2023-03-17 3:59PM EDT 149.00 7.05 6.95 7.10 -0.94 -11.76% 1,258 3,338 38.82%
AAPL230324C00150000 2023-03-17 3:59PM EDT 150.00 6.20 6.15 6.30 -0.80 -11.43% 3,737 7,740 37.94%
AAPL230324C00152500 2023-03-17 3:59PM EDT 152.50 4.35 4.25 4.40 -0.70 -13.86% 4,954 12,826 35.13%
AAPL230324C00155000 2023-03-17 3:59PM EDT 155.00 2.75 2.72 2.78 -0.58 -17.42% 27,953 21,838 32.47%
AAPL230324C00157500 2023-03-17 3:59PM EDT 157.50 1.50 1.51 1.53 -0.52 -25.74% 43,605 19,647 30.01%
AAPL230324C00160000 2023-03-17 3:59PM EDT 160.00 0.70 0.68 0.70 -0.36 -33.96% 34,826 18,721 27.83%
AAPL230324C00162500 2023-03-17 3:59PM EDT 162.50 0.28 0.27 0.28 -0.21 -42.86% 10,321 12,130 26.71%
AAPL230324C00165000 2023-03-17 3:59PM EDT 165.00 0.11 0.10 0.11 -0.10 -47.62% 15,252 13,672 26.66%
AAPL230324C00167500 2023-03-17 3:59PM EDT 167.50 0.04 0.03 0.05 -0.05 -55.56% 4,614 3,087 27.74%
AAPL230324C00170000 2023-03-17 3:58PM EDT 170.00 0.02 0.02 0.03 -0.02 -50.00% 2,277 6,153 29.88%
AAPL230324C00172500 2023-03-17 3:59PM EDT 172.50 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.00 - 415 2,213 32.03%
AAPL230324C00175000 2023-03-17 3:50PM EDT 175.00 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.00 - 128 3,058 35.94%
AAPL230324C00177500 2023-03-17 1:48PM EDT 177.50 0.01 0.00 0.03 0.00 - 3 397 41.60%
AAPL230324C00180000 2023-03-17 3:54PM EDT 180.00 0.02 0.00 0.03 +0.01 +100.00% 4 1,467 45.31%
AAPL230324C00182500 2023-03-15 1:37PM EDT 182.50 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.00 - 5 166 46.88%
AAPL230324C00185000 2023-03-17 2:21PM EDT 185.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 - 10 859 46.88%
AAPL230324C00190000 2023-03-17 9:30AM EDT 190.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 - 16 1,143 50.00%
AAPL230324C00195000 2023-03-16 3:22PM EDT 195.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 - 1 302 54.69%
AAPL230324C00200000 2023-03-10 10:36AM EDT 200.00 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.00 - 1 315 60.94%
AAPL230324C00205000 2023-03-15 2:49PM EDT 205.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 - 28 16,077 65.63%
AAPL230324C00210000 2023-03-13 9:34AM EDT 210.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 - 1 2 71.88%
AAPL230324C00235000 2023-02-15 11:12AM EDT 235.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 - - 4 93.75%
AAPL230324C00250000 2023-02-06 10:53AM EDT 250.00 0.12 0.00 0.01 0.00 - - 7 106.25%
PutsforMarch 24, 2023
Contract Name Last Trade Date Strike Last Price Bid Ask Change % Change Volume Open Interest Implied Volatility
AAPL230324P00050000 2023-03-15 10:01AM EDT 50.00 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.00 - 1 102 268.75%
AAPL230324P00055000 2023-02-17 1:33PM EDT 55.00 0.01 0.00 0.03 0.00 - 100 102 253.13%
AAPL230324P00060000 2023-03-15 9:37AM EDT 60.00 0.01 0.00 0.03 0.00 - 5 110 234.38%
AAPL230324P00065000 2023-02-17 1:33PM EDT 65.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 - 100 100 193.75%
AAPL230324P00070000 2023-02-17 1:37PM EDT 70.00 0.01 0.00 0.03 0.00 - 124 124 196.88%
AAPL230324P00075000 2023-03-10 11:14AM EDT 75.00 0.01 0.00 0.03 0.00 - 3 29 181.25%
AAPL230324P00080000 2023-02-21 2:00PM EDT 80.00 0.02 0.00 0.03 0.00 - 1 3 165.63%
AAPL230324P00085000 2023-02-21 3:31PM EDT 85.00 0.03 0.00 0.03 0.00 - 1 2 151.56%
AAPL230324P00090000 2023-03-17 10:58AM EDT 90.00 0.01 0.00 0.03 0.00 - 130 18 137.50%
AAPL230324P00095000 2023-03-17 10:54AM EDT 95.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 - 596 147 112.50%
AAPL230324P00100000 2023-03-17 3:36PM EDT 100.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 - 13,353 308 103.13%
AAPL230324P00105000 2023-03-17 3:19PM EDT 105.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 -0.01 -50.00% 6,040 303 90.63%
AAPL230324P00110000 2023-03-17 3:06PM EDT 110.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 -0.01 -50.00% 479 1,280 90.63%
AAPL230324P00115000 2023-03-17 11:06AM EDT 115.00 0.02 0.01 0.03 0.00 - 48 2,303 82.03%
AAPL230324P00120000 2023-03-17 3:59PM EDT 120.00 0.02 0.02 0.03 -0.01 -33.33% 55 7,386 73.05%
AAPL230324P00125000 2023-03-17 3:50PM EDT 125.00 0.04 0.03 0.04 0.00 - 85 2,332 64.84%
AAPL230324P00128000 2023-03-17 3:29PM EDT 128.00 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.00 - 184 1,043 60.55%
AAPL230324P00129000 2023-03-17 3:58PM EDT 129.00 0.05 0.04 0.06 0.00 - 132 583 58.98%
AAPL230324P00130000 2023-03-17 3:57PM EDT 130.00 0.06 0.05 0.06 +0.01 +20.00% 475 3,088 57.81%
AAPL230324P00131000 2023-03-17 3:12PM EDT 131.00 0.07 0.06 0.07 +0.01 +16.67% 274 1,838 56.84%
AAPL230324P00132000 2023-03-17 3:37PM EDT 132.00 0.07 0.06 0.07 +0.01 +16.67% 448 803 54.49%
AAPL230324P00133000 2023-03-17 3:35PM EDT 133.00 0.07 0.07 0.08 +0.01 +16.67% 66 873 53.52%
AAPL230324P00134000 2023-03-17 3:15PM EDT 134.00 0.10 0.07 0.09 +0.03 +42.86% 225 1,168 51.76%
AAPL230324P00135000 2023-03-17 3:59PM EDT 135.00 0.09 0.09 0.10 +0.01 +12.50% 1,263 2,581 50.78%
AAPL230324P00136000 2023-03-17 3:49PM EDT 136.00 0.11 0.09 0.11 +0.01 +10.00% 200 579 49.61%
AAPL230324P00137000 2023-03-17 3:59PM EDT 137.00 0.11 0.11 0.12 0.00 - 686 1,060 48.05%
AAPL230324P00138000 2023-03-17 3:54PM EDT 138.00 0.13 0.12 0.13 0.00 - 183 1,527 46.29%
AAPL230324P00139000 2023-03-17 3:59PM EDT 139.00 0.16 0.14 0.15 +0.03 +23.08% 327 1,367 45.12%
AAPL230324P00140000 2023-03-17 3:59PM EDT 140.00 0.17 0.16 0.18 +0.01 +6.25% 2,124 4,089 44.14%
AAPL230324P00141000 2023-03-17 3:59PM EDT 141.00 0.20 0.20 0.21 +0.01 +5.26% 1,554 1,899 43.02%
AAPL230324P00142000 2023-03-17 3:59PM EDT 142.00 0.24 0.23 0.24 0.00 - 2,665 2,500 41.65%
AAPL230324P00143000 2023-03-17 3:59PM EDT 143.00 0.27 0.27 0.29 0.00 - 2,104 2,460 40.77%
AAPL230324P00144000 2023-03-17 3:59PM EDT 144.00 0.32 0.32 0.34 0.00 - 2,200 4,633 39.60%
AAPL230324P00145000 2023-03-17 3:59PM EDT 145.00 0.39 0.39 0.40 +0.02 +5.41% 4,152 9,084 38.43%
AAPL230324P00146000 2023-03-17 3:59PM EDT 146.00 0.49 0.48 0.49 +0.06 +13.95% 1,491 6,691 37.65%
AAPL230324P00147000 2023-03-17 3:59PM EDT 147.00 0.59 0.57 0.59 +0.06 +11.32% 3,272 6,623 36.72%
AAPL230324P00148000 2023-03-17 3:59PM EDT 148.00 0.71 0.70 0.72 +0.07 +10.94% 22,735 19,202 35.99%
AAPL230324P00149000 2023-03-17 3:59PM EDT 149.00 0.86 0.83 0.86 +0.09 +11.69% 3,785 7,289 34.96%
AAPL230324P00150000 2023-03-17 3:59PM EDT 150.00 1.04 1.02 1.05 +0.11 +11.83% 20,159 9,006 34.28%
AAPL230324P00152500 2023-03-17 3:59PM EDT 152.50 1.68 1.64 1.68 +0.17 +11.26% 14,006 7,845 32.40%
AAPL230324P00155000 2023-03-17 3:59PM EDT 155.00 2.59 2.54 2.59 +0.28 +12.12% 27,012 9,417 30.25%
AAPL230324P00157500 2023-03-17 3:59PM EDT 157.50 3.85 3.80 3.90 +0.30 +8.45% 5,089 7,598 28.39%
AAPL230324P00160000 2023-03-17 3:59PM EDT 160.00 5.55 5.45 5.60 +0.45 +8.82% 6,102 7,004 26.20%
AAPL230324P00162500 2023-03-17 3:59PM EDT 162.50 7.59 7.50 8.25 +0.89 +13.28% 865 1,100 36.43%
AAPL230324P00165000 2023-03-17 3:45PM EDT 165.00 10.05 9.60 10.65 +0.65 +6.91% 38 1,052 41.60%
AAPL230324P00167500 2023-03-17 11:09AM EDT 167.50 12.40 11.95 12.95 +0.85 +7.36% 346 267 43.41%
AAPL230324P00170000 2023-03-17 1:22PM EDT 170.00 13.85 14.50 15.65 -0.12 -0.86% 6 5 54.39%
AAPL230324P00172500 2023-03-15 3:26PM EDT 172.50 20.05 16.85 17.95 0.00 - 27 5 54.93%
AAPL230324P00175000 2023-03-16 3:24PM EDT 175.00 19.80 19.50 20.45 +1.00 +5.32% 2 1 60.35%
AAPL230324P00185000 2023-03-06 10:30AM EDT 185.00 31.17 29.45 30.55 0.00 - 2 0 84.03%
AAPL230324P00190000 2023-02-13 10:31AM EDT 190.00 38.77 39.00 39.40 0.00 - 1 0 168.34%
AAPL230324P00195000 2023-03-06 2:50PM EDT 195.00 40.17 39.35 40.45 0.00 - 1 0 98.44%
AAPL230324P00200000 2023-03-03 12:25PM EDT 200.00 50.53 44.55 45.45 0.00 - 1 0 50.00%
AAPL230324P00210000 2023-02-27 12:55PM EDT 210.00 62.09 54.55 55.55 0.00 - - 0 89.06%
AAPL230324P00245000 2023-03-08 11:56AM EDT 245.00 92.41 89.30 90.45 0.00 - - - 170.12%
Example output
Based on the given market outlook, time horizon, risk tolerance, and capital allocation, here are the five best investment strategies that I recommend:
Bear Call Spread
Long Put
Protective Collar
Iron Condor
Long Straddle
For each of these strategies, I will provide the recommended amount to invest according to the portfolio volume, possible benefits, and returns that can be achieved for each of the scenarios, as well as the best hedging possibilities.
Bear Call Spread:
Investment amount: $5,000
This strategy involves selling a call option with a strike price closer to the current market price of the underlying asset (AAPL), while simultaneously buying a call option with a higher strike price. The objective of this strategy is to profit from a downward move in the underlying asset's price while limiting the potential loss. Assuming the following trade:
Sell AAPL230324C00050000 at $105.70
Buy AAPL230324C00130000 at $25.40
The net credit received from this trade is $80.30 ($105.70 - $25.40). This net credit is the maximum profit that can be made from this trade, which is equivalent to a return on investment (ROI) of 1.60%. The maximum loss that can be incurred is $1,919.70 ($130 - $50 - $80.30), which is the difference between the strike prices of the two call options minus the net credit received. This represents a potential loss of 38.39% on the investment amount.
Hedging possibilities: The best way to hedge against potential losses in this strategy is to buy a call option with a higher strike price than the one that was initially bought. This would increase the maximum loss but also increase the maximum profit potential.
Long Put:
Investment amount: $5,000
This strategy involves buying a put option with a strike price at or below the current market price of the underlying asset (AAPL). The objective of this strategy is to profit from a downward move in the underlying asset's price. Assuming the following trade:
Buy AAPL230324P00100000 at $102.50
The maximum loss that can be incurred is the premium paid for the put option, which is $2,550. This represents a potential loss of 51% on the investment amount. The maximum profit potential is unlimited as the underlying asset's price can drop to zero.
Hedging possibilities: The best way to hedge against potential losses in this strategy is to sell a call option with a higher strike price than the one that was initially bought. This would limit the potential profit but also limit the potential loss.
Protective Collar:
Investment amount: $5,000
This strategy involves buying a put option with a strike price at or below the current market price of the underlying asset (AAPL) while simultaneously selling a call option with a strike price above the current market price of the underlying asset. The objective of this strategy is to protect the value of an underlying asset against a potential downward move while limiting the potential profit. Assuming the following trade:
Buy AAPL230324P00100000 at $102.50
Sell AAPL230324C00120000 at $35.85
The net debit paid for this trade is $32.35 ($102.50 - $35.85 - $34.30), which represents the maximum loss that can be incurred. The maximum profit potential is limited to $167.65 ($120 - $102.50 - $32.35), which is equivalent to an ROI of 3.35%.
Long Straddle:
In this strategy, the investor buys a call and a put option at the same strike price and expiration date. The idea behind this strategy is to profit from a significant move in either direction, regardless of which way the price goes. As the market outlook is bearish, the investor can buy a put option at the strike price of $130 and a call option at the strike price of $120, both with a March 24, 2023 expiration date.
Amount to invest: $5,000 in each option ($10,000 in total)
Potential benefits and returns:
If the stock price drops below $115, the put option will become profitable, while the call option will expire worthless. The maximum profit will be the strike price of $130 minus the total premium paid, which is $26.06 ($105.94 for the put option + $20.12 for the call option) = $103.94. The return on investment will be 104%.
If the stock price rises above $140, the call option will become profitable, while the put option will expire worthless. The maximum profit will be the stock price minus the strike price of $120, minus the total premium paid, which is $26.06 ($105.94 for the put option + $20.12 for the call option) = $6.88. The return on investment will be 69%.
If the stock price stays between $115 and $140, both options will expire worthless, and the investor will lose the entire premium paid, which is $10,000.
Hedging possibilities:
The investor can buy shares of AAPL to hedge against the potential losses in case both options expire worthless. The number of shares to buy will depend on the strike price of the options and the current stock price.
Bear Put Spread:
In this strategy, the investor buys a put option at a lower strike price and sells a put option at a higher strike price with the same expiration date. The idea behind this strategy is to limit the potential losses while still benefiting from a drop in the stock price. As the market outlook is bearish, the investor can buy a put option at the strike price of $130 and sell a put option at the strike price of $120, both with a March 24, 2023 expiration date.
Amount to invest: $2,500 in each option ($5,000 in total)
Potential benefits and returns:
If the stock price drops below $120, the investor will exercise the put option at the strike price of $130 and sell the put option at the strike price of $120, resulting in a profit of $10 ($130 - $120) minus the total premium paid, which is $11.19 ($14.68 for the put option at the strike price of $130 - $3.49 for the put option at the strike price of $120) = -$1.19. The return on investment will be -24%.
If the stock price stays above $130, both options will expire worthless, and the investor will lose the entire premium paid, which is $5,000.
Hedging possibilities:
The investor can buy shares of AAPL to hedge against the potential losses in case both options expire worthless. The number of shares to buy will depend on the strike price of the options and the current stock price.